TheLancet: Volume 386, No. 9989, p163–170, 11 July 2015
To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales’ districts.
We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales’ 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data.
Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5–79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3–83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9–75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1–84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8–80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0–88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female–male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2–87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7–88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across districts, measured as the difference between the 1st and 99th percentiles of district life expectancies, has risen since 1981, and is forecast to rise steadily to 8·3 years (6·8–9·7) for men and 8·3 years (7·1–9·4) for women by 2030.
Present forecasts underestimate the expected rise in life expectancy, especially for men, and hence the need to provide improved health and social services and pensions for elderly people in England and Wales. Health and social policies are needed to curb widening life expectancy inequalities, help deprived districts catch up in longevity gains, and avoid a so-called grand divergence in health and longevity.
via Images in The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting – The Lancet.
Dying Matters has produced a number of films. These can be used in numerous health and social care training scenarios, as well as in hospices, GP surgeries, care homes, voluntary organisations, community groups – anywhere, in fact, where discussions about end of life planning are appropriate.
One such film is that by Kate Granger, a Specialist Registrar in Geriatric Medicine, who has incurable cancer. Since her diagnosis, Kate has written two books and launched the “hello my name is” campaign, which has received national attention. In the powerful and emotional ‘Kate’s Story’, Kate and her husband Chris discuss their situation with honesty, humour and pragmatism.
Watch the film and find out more about Kate Granger
10,000 steps and 1,000 kgs of weight
In our latest health and wellbeing case study, learn how Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust motivated its workforce to lose a staggering 1,000 kg in weight.
To help raise awareness of health and wellbeing to staff the trust took part in the Global Corporate Challenge (GCC). The challenge was to take at minimum of 10,000 steps a day over a 100 day period.
From May to September, 72 teams of employees took on the challenge, generating an average step count of 14,500. This placed the trust as the fourth highest health care performer, in the challenge, worldwide. Due to its success both in achieving its health and wellbeing aims and staff engagement outcomes, the trust is currently planning to repeat the challenge.
Read Chesterfield Royal’s case study which outlines the steps taken to deliver the initiative, the resources needed, key challenges and top tips for other trusts looking to take on the Global Corporate Challenge
via Weight is over for Chesterfield — NHS Networks.
NICE’s latest quality standard sets out advice to help reduce tobacco-related harm for people who are unwilling or not ready to stop smoking.The quality standard contains four quality statements which together set out the best care that should be offered to people who want to take a harm-reduction approach to smoking.
The Kings Fund has published Better value in the NHS – report summary. This summary report calls on doctors, nurses and other staff to deliver better outcomes at lower costs. It provides examples where potential savings could still be made resulting in better outcomes and concludes that the challenge facing the NHS over the coming years is fundamentally about improving value rather than reducing costs.
Mental Health Key Facts
The new RCPsych Key Facts App gives instant access to the College’s mental health information leaflets, videos and podcasts.
Patients, carers, mental health professionals and students can have a wealth of information and support at the touch of a button.
Available from iTunes and Android Play Store.
Search for: RCPsych Mental Health App
via New RCPsych App – Mental Health Key Facts.
Tobacco Free Initiative (TFI)
The continued success in global tobacco control is detailed in this year’s WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2015: substantial progress has been made since the entry into force of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC) ten years ago.
The fifth in the series of WHO reports provides a snapshot of the MPOWER measures, with all country-specific data updated and aggregated through 2014. In addition, the report provides a special focus on tobacco taxation and in-depth analyses of tobacco taxes in all WHO Member States, allowing for a more detailed understanding of progress and future challenges in this area. The report was launched in Manila, Philippines on 7 July 2015.
via WHO | WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic, 2015.