Gray, W.K., Navaratnam, A.V, Day,J. Wendon, J. & Briggs, T.W.R. | 2021| COVID-19 hospital activity and in-hospital mortality during the first and second waves of the pandemic in England: an observational study | Thorax | http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9597-5446
In-hospital mortality rates are a key marker for the performance of health services in managing patients with COVID-19. However, little is known about how hospitals within the National Health Service in England coped with the surge in cases during winter 2020/2021. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality rates over time and in specific patient groups during the first and second waves of the pandemic in English hospitals.
Thea authors of this paper provide a complete record of all COVID-19-related hospital activity in England over a 13-month period. Understanding how outcomes have changes over time and which patient groups have responded less well to advances in patient management is important in preparing for future case surges.
Abstract
Introduction We aimed to examine the profile of, and outcomes for, all people hospitalised with COVID-19 across the first and second waves of the pandemic in England.
Methods This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics data set for England. All patients aged more than or equal to 18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest. The second wave was identified as starting on 1 September 2020. Multilevel logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the relationship between mortality and demographic, comorbidity and temporal covariates.
Results Over the 13 months, 374 244 unique patients had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay, of whom 93 701 (25 per cent) died in hospital. Adjusted mortality rates fell from 40 per cent–50 per cent in March 2020 to 11% in August 2020 before rising to 21 per cent in January 2021 and declining steadily to March 2021. Improvements in mortality rates were less apparent in older and comorbid patients. Although mortality rates fell for all ethnic groups from the first to the second wave, declines were less pronounced for Bangladeshi, Indian, Pakistani, other Asian and black African ethnic groups.
Conclusions There was a substantial decline in adjusted mortality rates during the early part of the first wave which was largely maintained during the second wave. The underlying reasons for consistently higher mortality risk in some ethnic groups merits further study.
COVID-19 hospital activity and in-hospital mortality during the first and second waves of the pandemic in England: an observational study [paper]